By Lynn Vavreck
The economic climate is so strong in making a choice on the result of U.S. presidential elections that political scientists can expect winners and losers with striking accuracy lengthy ahead of the campaigns commence. but when it truly is actual that "it's the financial system, Stupid," why do incumbents in reliable economies occasionally lose? the explanation, Lynn Vavreck argues, is that what issues is not only the nation of the economic climate yet how applicants react to it. via demonstrating extra accurately than ever ahead of how applicants and their campaigns impact the commercial vote, The Message issues presents a strong new approach of knowing previous elections--and predicting destiny ones.Vavreck examines the earlier sixty years of presidential elections and provides a brand new idea of campaigns that explains why electoral victory calls for greater than easily being the candidate favorite via winning fiscal stipulations. utilizing info from presidential elections on the grounds that 1952, she finds why, while, and the way crusade messages make a difference--and after they can outweigh fiscal predictors of election outcomes.The Message concerns does greater than exhibit why applicants favourite through the economic system needs to construct their campaigns round financial messages. Vavreck's idea additionally explains why applicants deprived by way of the economic system needs to try and concentration their elections on noneconomic concerns that meet exacting criteria--and why this can be so demanding to do.
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Extra info for The Message Matters: The Economy and Presidential Campaigns
Using content analyses from the New York Times, candidate advertisements, and candidate stump speeches, I am able to compare what candidates actually talked about during their campaigns with what the theory predicts they should have talked about. The analytic power of the theory is tested as I discover that eventual winners are most often those candidates who behave as the theory and typology predict they should. Candidates who violate the typology’s prescriptions lose elections. In chapter 6, Part III, I turn the investigative light onto the behavior of voters in elections, searching for the unique eﬀects associated with the clarifying and insurgent campaigns.
5Others also contributed to this line of research: Kinder, Adams, and Gronke 1989; Lewis-Beck 1988; Markus 1988; Kiewiet and Rivers 1985. 14 CHAPTER TWO could be deterministic, even after indicators such as presidential popularity or approval ratings were factored into the prediction. While objective measures of national economic conditions do a very good job of predicting winning parties long before candidates have even been named, if voters do not understand what the objective economic conditions actually are, the forecasts will fail.
More important for a theory of campaign eﬀects is the filtering eﬀect of a person’s values, or predispositions. These are the things that enable a voter to sort through the many campaign messages sent by candidates and choose which ones to believe, which to ignore, and which will lead to changes in opinions or attitudes. Zaller calls this kind of filtering “partisan resistance,” when the values that act as the filter are based on partisanship or ideology. He writes, “Democrats and Republicans tend to reject messages from the opposing party, and liberals and conservatives reject persuasive communications that are inconsistent with their ideologies” (267).