Download Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in the Middle East by Prof. Gawdat G. Bahgat PDF

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By Prof. Gawdat G. Bahgat

Why perform a little international locations search to obtain nuclear guns? How can they be confident to renounce those aspirations? those are the underlying questions in Gawdat Bahgat's interesting new learn of nuclear proliferation in six key center East nations: Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Libya, and Saudi Arabia.

 

Bahgat appears to be like on the monetary and political forces that form this possibility to international peace and on the prospects--"largely unrealistic," he says--of developing a nuclear guns unfastened quarter within the zone within the foreseeable destiny. whereas nationwide protection matters are the most force at the back of nuclear offerings, different ancient and armed forces factors--national satisfaction, regime balance, and perceptions and attitudes of management, between others--also give a contribution to guns proliferation.

 

Though the location in every one kingdom he examines is exclusive, there are similarities. Bahgat demonstrates that nationwide safety issues has to be addressed to lessen the incentives for proliferation--not merely of nuclear guns, but in addition missiles and chemical and organic weapons.

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First, despite almost three decades of American economic sanctions, Iran is not isolated. Shortly after the end of the war with Iraq, Iran started improving economic and diplomatic relations with most of the world under former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. This trend gained momentum under his successor, President Muhammad Khatami. Despite the growing and dominant role of the conservatives, Tehran is likely to maintain its ties with the Arab world, Asian powers, Europe, and Russia. Second, Iran’s economy suffers from structural imbalances with high rates of inflation and unemployment and heavy subsidies to basic commodities.

An important step in this direction is the application to join the World Trade Organization. For several years the United States had blocked Iran’s application to join the WTO. In March 2005, in the midst of crucial negotiations between European countries and Iran, the Bush administration decided to lift its opposition in order to bolster European diplomatic efforts. WTO membership talks normally last for several years. For these talks to succeed, Iran will have to change its domestic laws and procedures to comply with WTO rules.

This would be devastating for an economy dependent on oil exports for most of its revenue. It is important to remember that Iran’s pursuit of nuclear energy started under the shah and has been expanded under the Islamic regime. Given the strong popular and official support for the nuclear program, three conclusions can be suggested. First, regardless of the political orientation of the regime in Tehran, Iran is likely to pursue nuclear capability. Second, Iranians are adamantly insisting that their nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes.

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