By Christopher T. Saunders (eds.)
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Extra resources for East and West in the Energy Squeeze: Prospects for Cooperation
But factors leading to a lower production and processing efficiency rate will be: - the increasing share of highly refined energy sources (electricity, liquid fuels, gas and long-distance heating) in end-use energy consumption; and relatively large expenditures for clearing operations in brown coal mining. International experience suggests that, in these circumstances, a further reduction of the production and processing efficiency rate is to be expected. With regard to the integration of the energy industry's development into overall economic and social development, there are a number of questions to answer, with direct and indirect influences on strategic energy decisions.
O/a t -P Bt I Scenario Model "Plan-project" ~ Scenario/ model plan yr. t+T Figure 2 Figure3 Two scenarios of national economic growth until 1990 high, strained _... inwtt. non-produc. - ........ turplus -- - -- Basic scenario "Optimistic" scenario ~NP /a = 1,045 1,050 0,255 34Bill. M 10 Bill. M 1,010 0,605 at= 0,233 I~= 35 Mrd. M t W5 =4 Mrd. M ~0/a = 1,020 e = 1975, or 1975no respectively •t =0,615 55 Figure 4 Projections of national economic structure Kl t Scenario/model "PLAN PROJECT" KG t Aut Calculation of fixed assets reproduction Projections of structure of final product K~I K~ I Aui I~ I IK t lp t I~I w; wt i=1,2 ....
In parallel, the analysis and forecasting for selected material-use vectors and energyintensive processes provide indications about alterations in the structural model's coefficients. To derive the consequences for the development of energy or raw material demand, the individual energy sources or raw materials are separately specified in the model. From the results of this structural model, and from the analysis and forecasting of the role of selected materials and energy-intensive processes, growth strategies for individual lines of energy production and processing can now be developed.