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By Alan J. Auerbach

Booklet via Auerbach, Alan J., Kotlikoff, Laurence J.

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Given the impulse, these will determine the nature of the effect that it produces, and are in this sense, causes of industrial fluctuations" (Pigou, 1927, p. 8). 18 Expectations based on these [real causes] are true, or valid expectations. Psychological causes . . are changes that occur in men's attitude of mind, so that, on a constant basis of fact, they do not form a constant judgement. In a stationary state, or, more accurately, a state of self-repeating movement, real causes of varying expectations could not, by definition, exist.

Then a period of overproduction arises, not only from the unequal distribution of income, but also from the impossibility of foreseeing the future in a capitalist economy and of judging the size of the investment vacuum. It might be said that Spiethoff describes the cycle in terms of investment demands, in contrast with Tugan-Baranovsky's emphasis on savings (loanable fund). Both understand the discrepancy, however, between savings and investment as a key feature of cycles. The second group of cycle theories, which also finds the ultimate cause of cyclical fluctuations in disproportionate production is represented by Aftalion's acceleration theory.

In that situation investment and consumption goods could be complementary. Although it should be granted that, considering the tendency toward quantitive economics during the interwar period, Hayek's theory presented certain difficulties to one who might want to mathematize it, this does not fully explain why Hayek was ignored, though not rejected, by contemporary and later economists. Here Machlup could be right in noting that "with the appearance of the General Theory the drama was ended. By then, after several years of the Great Depression, it had become clear that Hayek's prescription of 'waiting it out' was inopportune" (Machlup, 1976, p.

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