Download Consequence modeling for nuclear weapons probabilistic by Harvey, T.F.; Peters, L.; Serduke, F.J.D.; Hall, C.; PDF

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By Harvey, T.F.; Peters, L.; Serduke, F.J.D.; Hall, C.; Stephens, D.R

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Extra info for Consequence modeling for nuclear weapons probabilistic cost/benefit analyses of safety retrofits

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Serduke,T. Harvey,andJ. , DDV-940033, September1994,LLNL LivermoreCA 94550 F. SerdukeandT. Harvey,“ProbabilisticCost-BenefitAnalysis:A CloserLookat the Distributions”,Atmos. Sci. Div. Dot. , DDV 92-0021,LLNLLivermoreCA 94550 *authors list, “DraftSupplemental EnvironmentalImpactStatement- Deploymentof Peacekeeper Missiles in MinutemanSilosin Wyoming”,FederalCourtRecords,RoyB. et al. v. , No. ),August1991 2. By weight,weaponsgrade uraniumis abouta factor of 4000 lesshazardousthan Pu. Note,however,for certainaccidentscenarios,eventhoughsmall,uraniumdispersalwouldbe the dominanthazard.

This is near to the main-cloud base. Because of the structure of near-field fallout patterns, we have adjusted the altitude mode of activity for the larger particles at one-tenth the top of the main cloud. Relative units Figure 12 Activity-height distributions for KDFOC3 at five minutes. , the swept-up dirt size-distribution, of the physical-size and the radioactive materials deposition on the dirt, modeled as the “specific activity”. In an empirical model, these are lumped together in the measurements and taken as an activity-size distribution.

Respirable Fraction (%) 2n Figure 17 Respirable fraction cumulative distribution probability function. The derivative of this curve is the probability distribution function which would look like a gaussian curve when plotted on this semi-log plot. It would be skewed to the right if plotted on a linear-linear plot. Figure 18 has been derived with a Monte Carlo calculation. 7 to 3000 person-rem. This is across almost four orders-of-magnitude. The median value is roughly 100. Its lower bound is always above zero, Thus, it is reasonably well-represented by a lognormal distribution.

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